American Airlines Positioned for Shutdown End Game

The FAA's unprecedented capacity reduction creates a binary political catalyst. Here's how to position for resolution before Thanksgiving.

November 06, 2025

The FAA's unprecedented capacity reduction creates a binary political catalyst. Here's how to position for resolution before Thanksgiving.

🕒 Market Overview: The FAA announced mandatory flight reductions at 40 major airports—the first capacity crackdown of its kind during strong demand.

🔄 Sector Insight: With 36 days elapsed and Thanksgiving approaching, political pressure mounts to resolve the impasse before peak holiday travel.

💰 Today's Trade Idea: Bull call spread on AAL targets upside if shutdown ends, offering defined risk exposure into December expiration.

SMART TRADE IDEA

Bull Call Spread on AAL

Trade Setup:  Buy $13 Call / Sell $15 Call, December 19, 2025 expiration

  • Cost: $0.62 ($62 per spread)

  • Max Profit: $1.38 ($138 per spread)

  • Breakeven:  $13.62 on December 19, 2025

Management Plan:  Take profits or roll up if AAL’s share price reaches $15 or higher by December 15.

For those who believe the government shutdown will end within the coming week, an AAL bull call spread could offer upside potential with the 2025 holiday season approaching.

NOTE: Remember, options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Consider your investment objectives, financial resources, and experience level before implementing this or any options strategy.

DISCLOSURE: Trade recommendations may have changed since publication. Evaluate current market prices and risk/reward before acting. Trading involves significant risk and is not suitable for everyone. This is not personalized investment advice. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Publisher and contributors may hold positions in recommended securities. Readers assume full responsibility for their trading decisions. Consult a financial professional before investing.

Andy Hecht | Smart Analysis

A Wall Street veteran and analyst covering technical and fundamental factors in markets across all asset classes for over four decades.

The government shutdown has lasted far too long, but it is now crunch time, as the Thanksgiving holiday is only weeks away. Late November and December are peak travel times. Airport TSA slowdowns, fewer flights, furloughed government employees, and a growing number of job reductions will pressure both sides of the political aisle to reopen government and compromise before the holiday season begins. For those who believe the shutdown is in its final days, American Airlines shares (AAL) have been trending higher and could experience further gains if and when Democrats and Republicans in Washington, D.C., finally agree to reopen the government and negotiate on the issues that divide the two sides. Suffering constituents during the holiday season is a losing strategy for both political parties.

The daily year-to-date chart highlights AAL’s 63.4% rally from the April 4 low of $8.50 to the most recent October 24 high of $13.89 per share. Meanwhile, AAL traded to $14.01 on September 3, and the high for 2025 was $19.10 on January 22. Betting that AAL shares could take off if the government shutdown ends before Thanksgiving via a $13 - $15 vertical bull call spread at $0.62 for December 19, 2025, expiration offers a 1:2.22 risk-reward ratio.

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