🕒 Market Overview: NASDAQ composite reaches record high despite H-1B visa cost surge to $100,000

🔄 Sector Insight: Indian IT stocks drop 3% while U.S. tech shows resilience through policy adaptation

💰 Today's Trade Idea: Bull Call Spread on QQQ capitalizes on sustained uptrend momentum

SMART TRADE IDEA

Bull Call Spread on QQQ

Trade Setup: $620 Call / Sell $660 Call, January 16, 2026 expiration

• Cost:  $13.25 ($1,325 per spread)

• Max Profit:  $26.75 ($2,675 per spread)

• Breakeven:  $633.25.

Management Plan:  Exit at 50% loss, roll up, or take profits if QQQ’s price reaches $650 before expiration.

The trend in the leading technology index remains bullish in late September 2025. The odds favor higher prices by the end of this year, with the potential for window dressing in late December lifting the QQQ to higher highs. The $620-$660 bull call spread for mid-January 2026 expiration has a reasonable risk-reward ratio that will benefit from a continuation of the bullish trend. The tech index shrugged off the impact of the $100,000 H-1B visa cost, which is a sign that the increased expense will not interfere with the upward trajectory. 

NOTE: Remember, options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Consider your investment objectives, financial resources, and experience level before implementing this or any options strategy.

DISCLOSURE: Trade recommendations may have changed since publication. Evaluate current market prices and risk/reward before acting. Trading involves significant risk and is not suitable for everyone. This is not personalized investment advice. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Publisher and contributors may hold positions in recommended securities. Readers assume full responsibility for their trading decisions. Consult a financial professional before investing.

MARKET BREAKDOWN

Macro Lens – Big Picture Market Forces

Markets processed a significant policy shift over the weekend as H-1B visa fees increased by 1,000-2,000% to $100,000 per application, effective September 21st. The immediate reaction created sector-specific volatility, with the VIX reflecting uncertainty about implementation timelines and corporate cost structures. Despite initial concerns about technology sector impact, the NASDAQ composite demonstrated resilience by establishing new record highs, suggesting markets view this as a manageable adaptation challenge rather than a fundamental threat to growth trajectories.

The policy creates dual market forces: immediate cost pressures for high-dependency companies and acceleration incentives for automation and offshore strategies. Federal agencies continue developing implementation guidance while legal challenges emerge, creating an environment where corporate adaptation speed will determine relative performance.

Sector and Stock Watch – Identifying Key Movers

Technology sector leadership remains intact despite policy headwinds. The Invesco NASDAQ QQQ ETF maintains its position above $600 per share with over $381 billion in assets under management, reflecting sustained institutional confidence. Indian IT services faced immediate pressure with Persistent Systems declining 4% and major providers like TCS, Wipro, and Infosys each dropping 2-3%.

The divergence between domestic-focused tech giants and service providers highlights how markets differentiate between companies that can absorb increased costs versus those facing margin compression. High-volume options activity in major tech names indicates traders are positioning for continued volatility while maintaining bullish directional bias.

Trading Strategy in Focus – How to Play the Market

Current market conditions favor strategies that benefit from continued upward momentum while managing policy-driven volatility. The technology sector's ability to maintain record levels despite significant cost structure changes suggests underlying strength that can support directional plays with defined risk parameters.

Bull call spreads present an attractive risk-reward profile in this environment, allowing traders to participate in potential upside while limiting downside exposure. The strategy becomes particularly relevant when targeting ETFs with strong liquidity and established uptrends that can withstand sector-specific headwinds.

Notice: Today is unique! We are sharing two different trade ideas for SPY…

The administration has added the expensive $100,000 H-1B visa costs to its tariffs; the prospects for substantial U.S. government revenues come with increasing costs for companies, particularly in the technology sector. After processing the Friday bombshell news over the weekend, the technology-heavy NASDAQ did not miss a step, reaching a new record high on Monday, September 22, 2025.

The trend is always our best friend, and it remains bullish in late September 2025, with the odds favoring a continuation of higher highs.

The highly liquid Invesco NASDAQ QQQ ETF (QQQ) tracks the NASDAQ composite. At just over $600 per share, QQQ had over $381.666 billion in assets under management. QQQ trades an average of over 48.84 million shares daily and charges a 0.20% management fee. The ETF pays shareholders a $2.82 blended dividend, translating to a 0.47% yield, covering the ETF’s expense ratio in under six months. The bullish trend in the NASDAQ composite looks set to continue over the coming months and into 2026. The January 16, 2026, $620-$660 vertical bull call spread at $13.25 or lower has a slightly over 1:2 risk-reward ratio.

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